Last month saw one of the largest protests in recent Serbian history as hundreds of thousands of citizens flooded the streets of Belgrade, demanding early elections.
The country’s President Aleksandar Vucichas been in power for 12 years, during which he has masterfully maneuvered between the West and its allies — Russia and China.
For strongman leaders like Vucic, internal instability often triggers a familiar response: external provocation. In Russia, Vladimir Putin used the invasion of Ukraine not only to project strength abroad but to consolidate power at home.
Serbia’s leadership has long deployed a similar playbook.
Vucic’s favorite scapegoat is Kosovo — a young, vibrant democracy striving for Euro-Atlantic integration and often standing in sharp contrast to Serbia’s growing authoritarianism.
The current escalation in Belgrade poses a threat to Pristina — one that can be avoided with European defense built up ignited by President Trump.
Kosovo’s precarious position on the geopolitical chessboard is once again in the spotlight.
The protests in Serbia are more than just a domestic matter — they pose a direct threat to regional stability.
History has shown that when Vucic’s grip on power wavers, his government finds other targets. The 2023 Banjska attack, in which armed Serb militants killed a Kosovo police officer, was a blatant act of destabilization.
The 2024 sabotage of Kosovo’s water supply was yet another escalation.
Diplomatically, Serbia has engaged in lobbying against Kosovo’s membership in the Council of Europe. These attacks are not isolated incidents — they are part of a deliberate campaign of hybrid warfare targeting Kosovo’s sovereignty, economy, and people.
This is where the strategic calculus of NATO, and in particular, the leadership of U.S. President Donald Trump comes into sharp focus.
Given that the threat in Europe is coming not only from Russia but also from countries like Serbia, President Trump’s push for increased European defense readiness becomes increasingly paramount in importance.
At the most recent NATO summit, the organization’s Secretary General Mark Rutte backed a bold new target: 5% of GDP on defense by 2035.
This is a monumental shift, one that could reshape Europe’s security architecture for a generation. Yet lofty targets mean little without strategic allocation.
While attention often gravitates to the Baltics or Ukraine, the Western Balkans remain NATO’s soft underbelly — vulnerable to Russian influence, plagued by historical grievances, and marred by simmering ethnic tensions.
If Europe is serious about defending its borders and values, then the Western Balkans must move from the periphery to the center of its defense strategy.
Kosovo especially demands priority.
Despite years of cooperation with NATO, it remains outside the alliance’s formal membership.
This leaves the country in a gray zone — protected in part by NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR), but without the full guarantees that Article 5 provides. This ambiguity is dangerous.
It invites adventurism from Belgrade, meddling from Moscow, and confusion among Western capitals. Granting Kosovo full NATO membership is not just a moral imperative — it’s a strategic one.
A stable, democratic Kosovo within NATO is the best guarantee of peace in the Balkans.
It would send a message to Vucic — and to Putin — that destabilization will not go unanswered. For this progress to happen, it is imperative that a few remaining countries that have not yet recognized Kosovo’s independence, proceed in doing so, especially, countries that suffered aggression first-hand, such as Ukraine.
This is where American leadership, particularly under the Trump presidency, becomes indispensable. Trump’s habit of pushing NATO allies to spend more has already transformed the alliance’s trajectory.
But defense budgets alone do not deter aggression.
Political will, clear red lines, and bold diplomatic moves do. Trump’s instinct for strength and leverage — while often criticized — could be exactly what is needed to finally resolve the Balkans question.
As president, Trump does not shy away from controversial decisions when he believes they would serve American interests.
Renegotiating trade deals, and brokering the Abraham Accords are clear examples of diplomacy that broke with convention but delivered results.
Now President Trump has a chance to ignite European Abraham Accords by ensuring Balkan stability.
A Trump-led United States could lead the charge for Kosovo’s full NATO membership, break the logjam in Brussels, and isolate Serbia until it chooses the path of peace.
Washington has the diplomatic tools to persuade hesitant allies, pressure fence-sitters, and punish aggressors.
In doing so, Trump would not only cement his legacy as a dealmaker but as the architect of peace in one of Europe’s most volatile regions.
The lesson of the Ukraine war is clear: deterrence delayed is deterrence denied. Western hand-wringing and incrementalism only emboldened Vladimir Putin.
The same pattern must not repeat in the Balkans.
We must not wait for tanks to roll into northern Kosovo before we act. The current protests in Serbia are a moment of opportunity — one that could either trigger another round of Balkan instability or serve as a turning point.
With a robust NATO defense budget on the horizon, now is the time to ensure that Europe’s next crisis is preempted, not managed after the fact.
Colonel (Retired) Wes Martin – a retired U.S. Army colonel, has served in law enforcement positions around the world and holds a MBA in International Politics and Business. Read reports from Col. (Ret.) Wes Martin —? More Here.
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